Radar Forecast

See what the weather radar will look like up to 2 hours into the future

Radar Nowcasting

Predict where rain will be in the next 1-2 hours

Our radar forecast feature uses sophisticated nowcasting algorithms to predict where rainfall will move over the next couple of hours. Unlike traditional weather forecasts that use large-scale atmospheric models, nowcasting extrapolates the movement of existing radar echoes to predict their future positions.

This approach works particularly well for short-term predictions (up to about 2 hours) because it captures the current state of precipitation systems and projects them forward based on observed motion patterns.

How It Works

Our radar forecast system uses pysteps, an open-source Python library developed by the meteorological community for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting.

The system:

  1. Analyses recent radar imagery - Looking at the last 30 minutes of data
  2. Calculates motion vectors - Determining how precipitation is moving
  3. Projects forward - Generating forecast images at 5-minute intervals
  4. Updates continuously - New forecasts generated every few minutes

The result is seamlessly blended into the radar animation, so you see both observed radar data and forecast data in one continuous loop.

Darwin radar showing live data with forecast overlay

Darwin radar showing live data with forecast overlay

Adaptive Algorithms

Not all rain is equal. Light scattered showers behave differently to organised storm systems. Our system automatically analyses radar activity and selects the most appropriate forecasting method:

  • Light Activity - Simple motion extrapolation for scattered showers
  • Moderate Activity - Spectral prognosis (sprog) for organised rain systems
  • Intense Activity - Full STEPS ensemble for severe weather and widespread storms

This adaptive approach ensures computational resources are used efficiently while providing the best possible forecast for current conditions.

Sydney radar with forecast enabled

Sydney radar with forecast enabled

Using Radar Forecast

The feature is enabled by default for all users

Radar forecasts are automatically shown when viewing any HD radar page. You will see the animation continue past the current time, showing predicted radar returns for the next 1-2 hours.

Forecast frames are visually integrated with observed data, creating a seamless animation from past observations through to future predictions. This makes it easy to see where rain is headed and plan accordingly.

You can adjust the forecast duration in your account settings:

  • +1 hour - Shows forecast for the next hour (default)
  • +2 hours - Extended forecast, though accuracy decreases further out
  • Off - Disable forecast overlay if you prefer to see only observed data

Limitations

Understanding when nowcasting works best

Radar nowcasting excels at short-term prediction but has inherent limitations:

  • Time horizon - Accuracy decreases significantly beyond 1-2 hours
  • Storm development - Cannot predict new storms forming or existing storms intensifying/weakening
  • Complex terrain - Mountain ranges and coastal effects can cause unexpected behaviour
  • Rapidly changing conditions - Fast-moving fronts or highly convective situations are harder to predict

For longer-range forecasts, traditional NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models are more appropriate. Our location forecasts provide 7-day predictions using these methods.

Try It Now

Register to get these additional features:
  • Last 4 hours of data on the live weather map (satellite and radar)
  • Last 4 hours of SD and HD radar imagery
  • Last 4 days of AWS, rain gauge and river height observations
  • Automatic update of live radar and observation data
  • Save your options between use
  • You can also then subscribe to access even more
The Weather Chaser provides access to the highest quality weather data available for Australia. By registering you can continue to access it, and help us ensure we can continue to provide free access to the latest high quality data.
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