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Observations for this analysis :
Maximum observed rainfall by duration, estimated return period and AEP
Duration
Rainfall
Start
End
Years
AEP
10m
5.8 mm
1:00am 22/05/2026
1:10am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.5 years
64.67 %
20m
7.8 mm
1:00am 22/05/2026
1:20am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.6 years
64.32 %
30m
8.2 mm
12:50am 22/05/2026
1:20am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.4 years
72.59 %
60m
11.0 mm
12:20am 22/05/2026
1:20am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.4 years
68.97 %
90m
12.0 mm
12:10am 22/05/2026
1:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.4 years
73.98 %
120m
13.4 mm
12:20am 22/05/2026
2:20am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.4 years
73.57 %
3h
15.0 mm
11:40pm 21/05/2026
2:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.3 years
76.78 %
4h
17.0 mm
10:10pm 21/05/2026
2:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.3 years
78.76 %
6h
17.0 mm
8:40pm 21/05/2026
2:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.1 years
87.6 %
9h
17.0 mm
5:40pm 21/05/2026
2:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.1 years
94.41 %
12h
17.0 mm
2:40pm 21/05/2026
2:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.0 years
96.79 %
18h
17.0 mm
8:40am 21/05/2026
2:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.0 years
98.57 %
24h
17.0 mm
2:40am 21/05/2026
2:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.0 years
99.11 %
30h
17.0 mm
8:40pm 20/05/2026
2:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.0 years
99.5 %
36h
17.0 mm
2:40pm 20/05/2026
2:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.0 years
99.77 %
48h
17.0 mm
2:40am 20/05/2026
2:40am 22/05/2026
1 in 1.0 years
99.88 %
Note: A '1 in 1.0 years' estimate means that it is almost certain to occur at least once in a year, and could occur much more than once per year on average. For smaller values like this the Annual Recurrance Interval (ARI) may be of more relevance, but it is complex to calculate for common events.
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