6:30am 13/07/2026 to 6:30am 15/07/2026
Maximum observed rainfall by duration, estimated return period and AEP
Duration
Rainfall
Start
End
Years
AEP
15m
12.8 mm
12:30pm 14/07/2026
12:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 6.9 years
14.43 %
30m
21.2 mm
12:15pm 14/07/2026
12:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 16.3 years
6.14 %
45m
21.2 mm
12:15pm 14/07/2026
1:00pm 14/07/2026
1 in 9.2 years
10.85 %
60m
21.2 mm
12:15pm 14/07/2026
1:15pm 14/07/2026
1 in 6.5 years
15.28 %
90m
21.2 mm
12:15pm 14/07/2026
1:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 4.0 years
24.79 %
120m
21.2 mm
12:15pm 14/07/2026
2:15pm 14/07/2026
1 in 2.9 years
34.26 %
3h
21.4 mm
9:45am 14/07/2026
12:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 2.1 years
48.39 %
4h
21.4 mm
8:15am 14/07/2026
12:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 1.5 years
65.16 %
6h
22.2 mm
6:45am 14/07/2026
12:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 1.4 years
73.1 %
9h
25.4 mm
3:45am 14/07/2026
12:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 1.3 years
75.43 %
12h
30.4 mm
12:45am 14/07/2026
12:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 1.5 years
67.45 %
18h
32.2 mm
6:45pm 13/07/2026
12:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 1.3 years
77.69 %
24h
32.4 mm
12:45pm 13/07/2026
12:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 1.1 years
87.88 %
30h
32.6 mm
6:45am 13/07/2026
12:45pm 14/07/2026
1 in 1.1 years
92.0 %
36h
32.8 mm
6:30pm 13/07/2026
6:30am 15/07/2026
1 in 1.1 years
95.1 %
Note: A '1 in 1.0 years' estimate means that it is almost certain to occur at least once in a year, and could occur much more than once per year on average. For smaller values like this the Annual Recurrance Interval (ARI) may be of more relevance, but it is complex to calculate for common events.
IFD describes how rainfall intensity relates to how long it lasts and how often it happens. It is the basis for design rainfall used in engineering and flood studies.
- Duration: the length of the rainfall burst, from a few minutes to several days.
- AEP (Annual Exceedance Probability): the chance, in any one year, of a rainfall of that depth or greater. A 1% AEP event has a 1 in 100 chance each year - what is often loosely called a '1 in 100 year' event.
- The curves show design rainfall depths for a range of AEPs. The observed maximums for this location and period are plotted against them so you can see how rare the event was.
Design rainfall data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology.

